Betting on Romney

Seth R and I have a bet now as to who is going to win the nomination. I’m betting on Gingrich (or at least someone other than Romney) and he on Romney. Frankly, all things being equal, the odds are on his side. This article here explains why. In the article, we have a PhD explaining why the predictions market still favors Romney over Gingrich. Essentially, it boils down to what possible scenarios will play out for the first states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida) and how they anticipate the Republican bosses reacting.

One interesting idea in the article is that the anti-Romney crowd, seeing Gingrich can’t win, promotes Jon Huntsman or Ron Paul instead leading to a victory over Gingrich.

So I can see why Seth and others feel like Gingrich is only an outside chance. Continue reading