Preparing for the future: supply disruptions and vaccine failure

If there was ever a time to make sure that you have enough food storage, a clean water supply and extra medicines on hand, it is now.

Nearly a year ago I warned that supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns and mandates would create chaos, and now we are seeing increasing shortages. Even CNN was forced to admit the supply chain worries. Here is what I wrote in November 2020:

Let’s discuss supply chain disruptions, which sound rather pedestrian but are essential to understanding the devastating impact on the world’s poor from the response to the pandemic. You may have noticed that many of your favorite products in the United States are not available in the stores right now. And this is in a relatively free market for consumer goods. I cannot buy my favorite beverages all the time, and many kinds of meats are often not available. I am a big user of Lysol, but it is impossible to find it on the shelves these days. Interestingly, you can find Lysol on Amazon Prime, but it is five times its normal price.

Whenever there is a disruption in the global supply chain, this means that many products that used to be inexpensive become more expensive (think of the Lysol example above). The world’s poorest people spend 60 to 70 percent of their income on food. So, if food becomes scarce, richer people (like most Americans) can usually find it, and they may have to spend a bit more putting dinner on the table. But what happens to the world’s poor? Instead of spending 60 to 70 percent of their income on food, they must spend 100 percent, and they must borrow. And when the lockdowns go on for months (as has happened in 2020), the poor simply run out of money and begin to starve to death.

When the global supply chain is disrupted because factories are closed or meat packing plants are closed, this inevitably means that the world’s poorest people in places like Yemen, Malawi and Haiti are the hardest hit of all.

This is why it is essential that governments allow people, especially the young and healthy who are not as likely to die from COVID-19, to continue to work and produce — it actually helps the global supply chain, which helps the poor.

So what has happened in the last year? The results are devastating for the world’s poor:

Lockdowns and movement restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have led to decreased incomes globally. The GFPR reports that global poverty is estimated to increase by about 150 million people, or 20 percent above pre-pandemic levels. In Africa south of the Sahara, the recent trend of economic growth has been interrupted, with millions more people falling into extreme poverty over the course of 2020. Several African countries are now facing significant fiscal crisis as a result of the pandemic and the resulting economic impacts. In Latin America and the Caribbean, both urbanization and high obesity rates have resulted in rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus; in addition to these health impacts, a heavy reliance on informal employment in the region has translated into a significant loss of incomes and livelihoods as movement restrictions disrupted labor opportunities. The extent of impacts in Asia has varied, but the region has seen reduced incomes due to labor disruptions and a loss of remittances.   

Let me emphasize this point: 150 million people worldwide in poverty because of panic about a virus with a 99.7 survival rate. The response to the pandemic — fueled almost entirely by relatively rich people who can afford to stay home and sit on Zoom calls — has been a declaration of war on the world’s poor.

Isaiah 3:15: “What mean ye that ye beat my people to pieces, and grind the faces of the poor? saith the Lord GOD of hosts.

To be perfectly clear: if you support lockdowns and mandates, you are guilty of grinding the face of the poor because of your irrational fears.

There always was a better way. By April 2020, we knew that the SARS-CoV-2 was primarily harmful to the elderly, the obese and others with pre-existing conditions. The solution should have been to protect these people and allow the rest of society to go about its business. This what Sweden did, and it is now one of the safest places in Europe. This is what Florida has done, and it has the lowest rate of new infections in the United States. And this is what countries like Haiti and Nicaragua did, and COVID is practically nonexistent in these countries.

So now the same people who have grinded the faces of the poor for the last 18 months are trying to impose a worldwide vaccine mandate because of these irrational fears.

(Before I go on, please note that I am in favor of high risk people taking the COVID vaccines, and I support the Church’s position on vaccination, which calls for immunization. Immunization can take place both through natural immunity and vaccination. But note the Church asks people to voluntarily get vaccinated and does not support mandates.)

Publicly health officials continue to falsely claim that the vaccines offer more reliable protection when compared to natural immunity, yet medical studies from around the world show that natural immunity offers up to 27 times more protection than the vaccines do.

Numerous fully vaccinated people like Colin Powell have died from the virus but the corporate press spends its time attacking unvaccinated alternative media figures like Joe Rogan, who beat covid in three days using treatments like Ivermectin and monoclonal anti-bodies.

Knowledgeable observers are right to question what is going on with the effectiveness of the vaccines. In Washington State, for example, studies show that there have been at least 51,000 “breakthrough cases” of covid in the past 10 months. Breakthrough cases are people who are fully vaccinated but were still infected with COVID-19. Of those 51,000 people, 493 people died. When calculating the percentage of dead vs infected, we get around 0.96 percent. The median death rate of covid among unvaccinated people is only 0.27 percent according to dozens of peer reviewed medical studies. This means that the death rate of fully vaccinated people in Washington is actually HIGHER than that of unvaccinated people.

We have seen similar results in states like Massachusetts, where there were 5100 breakthrough cases in a single month and 80 deaths of fully vaccinated people, which is a 1.5 percent death rate for the vaxxed as opposed to 0.27 percent for the unvaxxed.

Vermont, which has the nation’s highest vaccination rate, is also seeing a huge spike in COVID cases, and 76 percent of the recent deaths have been among the vaccinated.

And what about studies from highly vaccinated countries like Israel, which show that the majority of infections and hospitalizations are among vaccinated people, with infections spiking well after the vaccines were introduced. Just after Israel became one of the most vaccinated nations on the planet, it also had one of the highest infection rates on the planet.

When you actually look at the science, it is easy to see what is going on.

There was a little-noticed study from Qatar in August that is instructive. It is called “Waning of BNT162b2 [Pfizer] vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in Qatar,” and it says:

“Estimated [Pfizer] effectiveness against any infection, asymptomatic or symptomatic, was negligible for the first two weeks after the first dose, increased to 36.5% in the third week after the first dose, and reached its peak at 72.1% in the first five weeks after the second dose. Effectiveness declined gradually thereafter, with the decline accelerating ≥15 weeks after the second dose, reaching diminished levels of protection by the 20th week.”

To sum up, the study shows you only get about 30 days of good protection and then it starts to drop off. It also says effectiveness declines “gradually” between weeks five and 15 and then drops off fast.

In fact, there have been numerous studies showing that vaccine effectiveness quickly dissipates. This explains the push for booster shots. In Israel, authorities want not just one but two booster shots, which means you are not fully vaccinated until you have gotten four jabs. What are the long-term effects of four jabs? Nobody knows for sure. And what happens when the effectiveness of the fourth jab wanes in 2022? Yet another booster, with unknown long-term consequences.

I would like readers to prepare for the following scenario: right now we are going into the traditional flu season, which was devastating for SARS-Cov-2 last year. Most states saw an increase in COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths last year from now until the spring. Vaccination will provide some protection, but the science clearly shows that the vaccines’ effectiveness is waning. A lot of people, understandably concerned about the unknown long-term side effects of endless booster shots, are going to avoid getting boosters. There will be a LOT of deaths among the vaccinated, with of course some deaths among the unvaccinated. Those of us with natural immunity may be the most protected. (To be fair, the science shows even better protection from natural immunity AND the vaccine. If you are super-worried about getting COVID, your best bet is to have both natural immunity and a vaccine. Just FYI).

There will be an increasing drum beat to blame somebody, anybody for this massive failure of public health in the United States. So far, the corporate press and the establishment are primarily blaming the unvaccinated. Most of the unvaccinated are relatively poor, and are disproportionately people of color.

So, once again, the same people who have been grinding the faces of the poor for 18 months now will continue to do so in the coming months. It is a desperately sad result, but it is a sign of the times: (2 Timothy 3:1-5): “In the last days there will come times of difficulty. For people will be lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, heartless, unappeasable, slanderous, without self-control, brutal, not loving good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having the appearance of godliness, but denying its power. Avoid such people.

We need to be prepared, both temporally and spiritually. We must have earthly supplies, but we must also be ready for to fight the spiritual battles coming. They are, unfortunately, inevitable.

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About Geoff B.

Geoff B graduated from Stanford University (class of 1985) and worked in journalism for several years until about 1992, when he took up his second career in telecommunications sales. He has held many callings in the Church, but his favorite calling is father and husband. Geoff is active in martial arts and loves hiking and skiing. Geoff has five children and lives in Colorado.

6 thoughts on “Preparing for the future: supply disruptions and vaccine failure

  1. People also need a good way of protecting themselves. Guns and ammo, folks. Guns and ammo.

  2. James, I am a gun owner, and I consider owning a gun is part of being prepared, but I tend to believe that Latter-day Saints will be separated from the worst violence coming during the End Times. I am not saying no Latter-day Saints will be hurt, and I am not saying we will not suffer (far from it). But I see a 3 Nephi scenario where most of the suffering takes place among the wicked and the non-believers and many of the followers of the Savior will be ready to gather to watch the Second Coming when it happens. My point is that hopefully we will never have to use those guns.

  3. Yeah, I’ve been pushing my family to stock up on our most-used items for several months now, and even though my dad grumbled at the high cost of the food bills, I think he’s coming around to the idea that my pushiness might have saved us a lot of money and trouble in the long run.
    This is not to say that we haven’t kept a decent food storage before (it certainly came in handy last year!), only that we’ve been stocking up a little more even than that. Likewise, we planted our garden like we do every year, but I made much more of an effort to preserve it for our own use. And my brother’s going out hunting for the first time soon. He wants to learn how to field dress and butcher before my dad’s too old to teach him.
    It would appear that my unusual skillset is about to become very useful.
    All this being said, I think that spiritual preparation is by far the more important aspect.

  4. Geoff is 100% right in his warnings here. About a year ago, I was seriously prompted to stock up on my food storage. I did it bit by bit. I also didn’t neglect other essential items. While I am not ready for a Mad Max scenario, I’m in a far, far better place than I was a year and a half ago.

    We Latter-day Saints believe in preparation. If you’re not prepared right now, please folks… get prepared. Hard times are coming, something that Pres. Nelson hasn’t been shy about alluding to.

  5. It takes about 45 days after the first shot to be considered fully vaccinated. If you cry let infected within those 45 days, even if you have 2 shots the data is counted as unvaccinated.

    For this reason any comparison of unvaccinated to vaccinated is moot. While I understand reason for the distinction, the concern is the risk profile is being intentionally obfuscated. If I’m being presented with manipulated data to persuade me, I’m not going along with it.

    Simply provide data for vaccinated/partially vaccinated/nonvaccinated.

    Additionally, I want to see thr population death rate for each of these groups. I have the suspicion that the general all cause death rate is higher for partially vaccinated.

    For those procovid vaccine, please put on your skeptical hat as if Donald Trump was selling you on the data as presented. You’d, hopefully, be spotting holes, manipulations, half truths, and lies.

    Group think is very real and definitely at play here, in addition to obvious power plays.

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