In May 2016, I predicted Donald Trump would be the next president. You can read it here. So readers are anxious to know what I think will happen in November 2020.
The answer: Trump will win again. Republicans will keep the Senate, and there is a 50-50 chance of the Republicans winning the House.
This is not necessarily a brave prediction. Anybody following the betting markets knows that Trump is expected to win among the people willing to put money on it.
Yes, yes, I know that Biden is way ahead in many crucial polls. I am predicting that the country will become less enthusiastic about Biden as he emerges from his basement. I am also predicting that the Democrats will suffer from their love for endless lockdowns during the COVID-19 crisis. I predict they will get more blame for the economic downturn than Trump.
But here is the thing about making predictions: sometimes you are wrong. For those who don’t understand my tongue in cheek sense of humor, please note that I was absolutely sure Mitt Romney would win in 2012, and I was very, very wrong on that prediction. Win some, lose some.
Even in deep blue New Mexico, people don’t want to vote for Biden. But I don’t trust polls anymore, after they got everything so wrong in 2016. That feeds into my distrust of “experts” on anything Covid19 related. I don’t trust anything these days ….
Joyce, I posted a link on Facebook from the former president of CBS news basically saying that the mainstream news media has given up on objectivity and fairness and is actually quite comfortable and happy with it. So I think skepticism regarding news sources is very appropriate.
The only things that will stop Trump’s re-election is if the economy doesn’t show continued signs of improvement or deaths from Covid19 accelerate.
Both look highly unlikely.
I hope you are right, Geoff, because I can’t abide Biden.