The results from the 2009 elections are in. Many people will misinterpret the results. On the right, you will hearing a lot of crowing on talk radio about how this is a rejection of President Obama. Not true. On the left, there will be relief about a Democrat pickup in NY-23, the congressional seat won by Bill Owens, and complete rejection of the idea the results have any national implications whatsoever. Also not true.
It seems to me there is a middle-way narrative which goes like this: the left interpreted the 2008 results, in which Democrats took over the White House and both houses of Congress, as evidence of a new progressive majority. Their leadership immediately pressed forward with an array of new initiatives, especially health care and cap-and-trade. The tea party movement has slowed the momentum of the progressive platform. The results from Tuesday’s voting could be another barrier slowing that momentum.
It is also incontrovertible that voters are very worried about the economy and are beginning to place the blame on the party in power for high unemployment and general economic malaise. Whether or not it is fair to blame the Democrats yet is another issue, but clearly most voters are less willing to give them a pass.
It is also undeniable that the results were highly influenced by local issues. Corzine is a highly unpopular governor in a state that is suffering economically. Deeds turned out to be a horrible candidate in Virginia (although it is worth pointing out that Dem leaders thought he was a great candidate just a few months ago). The Republican party clearly blew it in NY-23 from the beginning to the end.
Still, the left completely misinterprets the importance of the tea party movement and its certain role in the results last night, in 2010 and beyond. With hindsight, the left’s dismissal of the tea party protesters reminds me of the right’s dismissal of Iraq war protesters from just a few years ago. The Iraq war turned a whole group of moderate, independent people against Bush and the Republican brand, which resulted in Republican losses in 2006 and 2008.
What the left is missing is that moderate, independent voters are not ready for government-run health care and the huge new bureaucracies associated with cap and trade. The ABC exit polls show substantial numbers of people feel government is trying to do too much. Voters in Virginia especially completely rejected the “big government” message.
It is also worth noting that Harry Reid said yesterday that the health care bill will be postponed until 2010. In my opinion, massive health reform, including a public option, is dead for now. Moderate Dems are unlikely to support a massive change in health care after seeing the election results and hearing from their constituents.
It was highly gratifying to the see the results from Maine overturning same-sex marriage. The Washington result is slightly different because people approved domestic partnerships but the ballot question pointed out that a domestic partnership is not a marriage. I think the majority of Americans continue to share President Obama’s position, which is a rejection of same-sex marriage.
Speaking of Obama, it will be interesting to see how he responds to these results and the stalling of a health care reform measure. If he were smart, he would convert himself into a fiscal conservative like former Pres. Clinton and start tackling the concerns of the tea party groups. He could co-opt a large number of them because the national Republican leadership looks completely lost. Based on the results so far, I doubt he will make that change, but that would be change a lot of people could believe in.