One of the very strange phenomena of the last few years is that people are increasingly living in alternate realities. Because of social media algorithms and the new business models of the mainstream media, people increasingly only receive the information they want to receive. As recently as a decade or so ago, people generally saw a lot of the same information — today people exist in at least two information silos, and one group of people (the left and the Democrats) do not usually see any of the same information as people in the other silo (the right and the Republicans).
For the last few months, people on the left have been told that Joe Biden will easily win today’s election. Biden is ahead in all of the battleground states and may even win Texas! Here is a sample of what many left-wing people seem to believe from today’s New York Times:
538.com, the Nate Silver-run election forecasting site, has Biden easily winning. Here is the thing: many of the polls results are CLEARLY FALSE and no professional political scientist worth his or her salt actually believes them. There is NO WAY, absolutely none, that Biden beats Trump by 11 points in Wisconsin (a state that Trump won in 2016). Biden might win by a point or two or even three, but there is simply no rational formula having Biden winning by 11 points. Similarly, there is no way Biden wins Michigan by eight points (another state that Trump won in 2016). Again, he might win by a point or two or even three, but not eight points. And the people who put together this poll know this is impossible, but yet they published the results.
The problem is that the media is clearly printing information that they know is false. Why would they do this? Because the business model of the media has changed. Much of the media world today is driven by people clicking on things on the internet. About 40 percent of the U.S. population is made up of people who despise Trump, and many of these people are highly educated and have higher than average earning potential. These people want to hear that Trump is going to be destroyed on election night and hopefully soon sent to jail. So the media, instead of printing what is actually happening, prints information that their readers want to see. The future of these media outlets depends on keeping these readers happy, so the media invents news that fits the expected narrative.
Of course we can see that this is extremely dangerous. Printing information that is obviously false leads to false expectations, and when the results do not fit the narrative, we get anger and claims of fraud and this year likely a lot of violence. This is why shop owners in city centers are boarding up their businesses this week — they can read the tea leaves and they know the left will be upset when things don’t go their way.
So, have charity for your left-wing friends this week and in the weeks ahead. They are mostly good people, and they have been manipulated by the media in a most cynical fashion. The information they are receiving has been twisted and falsified, and the people receiving that information do not know what they don’t know.
What will really happen today? I have been predicting a Trump win for many months now, just as I did in 2016. Trump will win the following states: IA, FL, NC, GA, TX, MI, AZ. I think those state result will be called by tomorrow, Nov. 4, and Trump will have enough electoral college votes to win. PA will also go to Trump, but the results will not be final for a few days. MN and WI are too close to call, but I am leaning Trump winning WI and maybe MN. Trump also possibly wins NV and NH and one vote from Maine. Trump will win the electoral college and come closer in the popular vote. The Republicans will keep 51 to 53 seats in the Senate and pick up a few seats in the House. I have friends who are convinced the Republicans will take back the House, but I am skeptical.
But here is the thing: no matter what happens, I have seen the other side’s predictions, and if things don’t go my way I will know that my models were wrong. I will not riot or claim the Russians stole the election. Life will go on. And to any left-wingers or other Trump haters reading this: life will go on if Trump wins as well. Stay joyful people.
We shall see.
Geoff, thanks so much for this hiss. It is a balm of calm to me; the slick slurry of the Left had me bereft of it. Your take will relieve hearts’ ache.
May I add a slightly different take? as a registered Independent, unable to fully support either party’s traditional platforms, our political infighting strikes me not from The Right or The Left, but from a centrist POV which tries to hear the candidates themselves, ignoring the pollsters as eager, hopeful, engaged participants who DON’T have the real facts, as Geoff says. I have been forced to the conclusion that in no way is this a campaign between Republicans and Democrats, but has, over these four years, become torqued into a campaign between Democrats in whole and Mr. Trump personally, because Mr. Trump has co-opted the entire Republican Party, as an existing entity, and turned it into his personal play pen. (I am not trying to be derogatory; I am trying to express that Mr. Trump did not in 2016 and does not now, even more so, understand the nature of a coalition of diverse opinions who are willing to unite under one banner to achieve mutual goals.) There ARE Republicans who share liberal perspectives with Democrats. There ARE Democrats who have conservative connections with Republicans. The issue is whether their party leaders have the experience, vision, desire to grow in office, and humility to look at facts straight on and admit error (or at least the need to improve in x or y area) or whether they come into office with an unyielding personal agenda which demands obedience and utter loyalty as the planks of the party platform. In this present case, President Trump, unfortunately, aligns far too closely with the latter, while V. P. Biden aligns far more closely to the former. This race is therefore more truly a struggle for the soul of America than any of us would have wished. Because a self-absorbed, intractable, complaining, inarticulate leader CANNOT manage the responsibilities of being, not issue-selective, but issue-comprehensive. His skill package is simply inadequate to that task. If he claims that he has created a great economy, when it is clear from all the evidence that he inherited an improving economy which he is now stomping into the ground, he lies to himself and to us. When he claims that climate change is a fiction of the Democrats and he is doing a great job of protecting fossil fuel industries, when it is clear from all the evidence that climate change is utterly real and the world in whole must transition out of fossil fuel dependence, he lies to himself and to us. And when he claims we are turning the corner on COVID, when every bit of evidence clearly shows that we are in the midst of a truly terrible upsurge of that virus and that people are dying unnecessarily on his watch, he lies to himself and to us. I understand that this election is already decided by the many who have already voted (of which I am one) and the relatively few who still remain to vote. But I fear for our country if we insist on describing this contest as a normal every-four-year fight for the presidency. It isn’t. This contest is unique. It is a fight to reclaim a sane and steady vision of American society from the cliff edge which Mr. Trump’s irresponsibilities have pushed us to. Do I not see difficulties ahead if Mr. Biden wins? Of course I do — those difficulties are why I cannot at present support the Democratic party entire. But we will not merely have difficulties if Mr. Trump wins — we will have entrenched divisiveness, anger, street disruptions, greater joy for our enemies, greater sorrow for those who would still like to be our allies, and an ever-widening gulf between Democrats priding themselves (which they shouldn’t) on trying to keep to the higher moral ground, and so-called Republicans, who actually no longer have a real party, but only a Trump venue for him to do with what he likes, and to tell any lies to himself and his perceived supporters that he needs to, to keep himself in power. What is needed is for those who are true Republicans at heart to renounce Mr. Trump in droves and say to him outright “Your message is not only self-serving, it is false. It has destroyed possible lines of coalition and communication with our colleagues on the other side of the aisle, it has offended our allies, it has given aid and comfort to our enemies, and we reject any claim of yours to be Republican in either thought or deed. We will be in a mess for some time to come, but we will get out of that mess far more quickly if you are not in it. Depart.” I pray for this nation to awake to both its potential and its responsibilities. Freedom to act with intelligence and vision is HARD. You have to want it. You have to wrestle with your own lazy devils of wanting somebody else to do your thinking for you. Mr. Trump has chosen to seduce a segment of the population away from sane and logical thinking, toward a kind of happy-mob mentality of hero-worship. This is neither mature leadership nor mature follow-ship (fellowship…). If we don’t choose to grow UP from this difficult political upheaval we will certainly slide DOWN. I don’t accept the latter as inevitable.
With the info silos, we risk a battle between two potential Gadianton groups. This is not to say everyone is in the know, but as in Orwell’s 1984, the people ignorantly believe the isolated info spoon fed to them.
The class and political divisions stirred up by the media is akin to the French Revolution. The radicals destroy the old established ways with mob rule, an important key President Oaks just warned about.
LOL
I wholeheartedly agree with the two silos point. Our respective posts prove the point. 🙂
Trump’s 2016 election wins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were possible/dependent on literally hundreds of thousands (close one million in total) of legal citizens being removed from the voter rolls in those states. Trump’s margin of victory in total for the three states was less than 100,000 (WI – 22,700 MI 11,700 PA 44,300). Since 2016 great efforts have been undertaken in voter registration drives to keep the voting rolls current, a similarly depleted electorate is not going to be the case this time around. Further, turnout is already at near record levels before the election day ballots are even being cast. Getting a Trump repeat in all three of those states is very unlikely.
I find your overall sweep scenario to be highly unlikely as well, one or two of the states you list may end up Trump’s column, but all of them is statistically very unlikely.
We will know after the votes have been counted. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona are the ones I’m particularly interested in whichever way the majority of those states go is likely the way the election will go. There is a chance the outcome in three of them (North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona) will be fairly clear by Wednesday morning.
In any event it is likely to be an interesting and consequential election/term.
My gosh, John: I wonder where your remarkable Information originates from. The source of course is key. Brother of other alliance, Liberal drivel is not without rot.
We will see who will have glee.
If you look at early voting, Florida is a lock for Trump at this point. Biden campaign people are quietly conceding they will lose Florida. I will update other states as the trends become more clear. Trump likely to win Florida by at least four points, maybe five points.
Frances, I’m not sure the Republican Party will be beyond repair from Trump trauma. All we GOPs need is a good next Republican president to repair the air. To defect from the party might be a hasty thing, I think. I think third party’s are basically fringe groups, benign and without clout. Maybe it is better to stay with the conservative ship and keep swabbing the decks working for change. I think the disease of Liberalism is far worse than a lone oddball president. I hope I am not wrong.
Return to the best boat—the Republican vessel, sister of independent bent! 🙂
Glen, I appreciate the invitation to “come home”! I know it was kindly meant and is certainly kindly received. For the moment, I have to stay independent, but if it helps, I can truthfully say that I tend to be more liberal when living in Utah and more conservative when living in Boston! Balance is all! Thanks for your comment (I would LOVE to see a new and healthy Republican party arise like a phoenix from its present doldrums).
More turnout information. Turnout in Virginia, of all places, is very good in Republican-leaning areas but very bad in Dem-leaning areas. Trump will probably not win Virginia, but this is interesting. Places where turnout is even higher than expected at this point for Republicans: Almost every county in Florida, Maricopa County, Ariz, rural Wisconsin, rural Michigan, rural Pennsylvania, northern Minnesota, Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno), NV. Turnout lower than expected: downtown Philadelphia and downtown Cleveland. I will update as I get more information.
The island of Guam is a US territory. They have a preference poll there that is non-binding (meaning the votes don’t count for anything). In 2016, Hillary (23k votes) beat Trump to almost 8k votes. With the final vote still being counted, Biden is at 14k to 11k for Trump. Just for fun.
Colorado news: late-breaking poll has Trump losing big time in Colorado and Gardner also losing. Even with poll biases and shy Trump voters, I don’t think Trump or Gardner will win in Colorado.
Nevada news: it will be VERY tight. Republican ballots returns are ahead of 2020 so far. Hillary beat Trump in Nevada by 27000 votes in 2016. One factor that many are not considering is that the Harry Reid machine was still working in 2016, but it is no longer working today. This might mean 10,000 lost votes to Biden, at least. In addition, sources tell me that people are upset at the Dem governor and the continuing COVID-19 shutdown. It will be very close in Nevada. Don’t be surprised if Trump pulls it out in the end. (Trump likely does not need Nevada to win, but who knows).
Florida for Trump, GA likely for Trump, according to the NY Times. NC too early.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
Geoff,
Interesting points.
I strongly believe that part of the reason for the inaccuracy of the presidential polls in both 2016 and in 2020 has to do with the so-called Bradley Effect where people fear giving their true opinion or choice for fear of reprisal or of being judged.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
Cheers.
My post turned out to be mostly right, with the obvious exception of the presidential race. But notice how far from reality the NY Times polls were, which was the primary point of this post in the first place. In terms of what happens in the coming days, There are scenarios where Biden wins (less likely) and scenarios where Trump wins (more likely), but anybody who tells you they know what is going to happen right now is lying. There are 20 possible directions this election could go, and the courts are going to be involved, with re-counts and charges of fraud and a complete mess. Welcome to 2020!
At the moment, CNN has not projected the presidential result in eight states, based on the number of mail-in votes not yet counted (which might be presumed to lean more liberal than conservative, given Mr. Trump’s voiced hostility to mail-in votes).
Working from West to East:
AK (3) has a history of voting conservative. However the 150,000+ absentee votes yet to be counted (next week!) could overturn the current conservative lead based on only 36% of reported votes.
NV (6) is narrowly (0.6%) for the liberal candidate based on 86% of the reported vote. Given the nature of the votes yet to be counted, it seems NV is likely to go to the liberal candidate.
AZ (11) appears solidly (3.4%) for the liberal candidate based on 86% of the reported vote. Ditto the NV comment regarding the trend expected for the votes yet to be counted.
WI (10) is narrowly (0.6%) for the liberal candidate, based on 99% of the reported vote. Analysis at this point indicates that there is no uncounted pocket of conservative strength that might be expected to overturn this narrow liberal lead.
MI (16) is also narrowly (0.9%) for the liberal candidate, based on 92% of the reported vote.
GA (16) currently favors (1.8%) the conservative candidate based on 93% of the vote. However there are numerous uncounted votes from counties including or near cities which could overturn the current appearance of a conservative lead.
NC (15) currently favors (1.5%) the conservative candidate based on 95% of the vote.
PA (20) appears solidly (8.2%) for the conservative candidate based on 80% of the reported vote. However there are many uncounted mail-in votes from urban areas which could overturn the current appearance of a conservative lead.
FWIW, CNN had not made a projection for ME (4) this morning, based on ME’s ranked choice voting, 2.6M mail-in votes, and all manner of complications. However CNN has since projected ME to go for the liberal candidate.
If the conservative candidate wins all the states CNN has currently projected going conservative as well as AK, GA, NC, and PA, that is not quite enough to win.
NV, AZ, WI, and MI are already trending liberal, and the nature of the votes that have not yet been counted would suggest they will similarly trend liberal, given Mr. Trump’s statements regarding mail-in votes.
While one might expect legal challenges to the outcomes in various states, it is worth remembering that the margin in Florida in 2000 amounted to less than 0.01%. It seems unlikely any of the above states will end up being that close on a percentage basis.
Every state is different. Alaska requires absentee ballots to be postmarked by Election Day (Nov. 3) and received within one week afterwards (Nov. 10) — and Alaska will not even start counting the absentee ballots until that latter date (Nov. 10).
Some states require absentee ballots to have been received already. Some states are already counting absentee ballots.
I am fine with this diversity. Any idea of a federally-run national popular vote election is scary to me.
As of the evening of November 5th, a rather mixed picture is emerging from this election.
Regarding Congress, I would say Geoff’s predictions have proved spot on. The Democrats have held the House, but lost seats. However, in the Senate, the Democrats have only gained one seat, despite heavily out fundraising and outspending the Republicans in several key races. The GOP retains its Senate majority, and any pipe dreams about Biden packing the court are moot. So overall, Congressional elections are a disappointment for liberals.
The Presidency is a different, more ckmplicated story. While the blowout Biden victory some hoped for (carrying Ohio, Florida and TEXAS of all things) has clearly proved a delusion. However at 7pm Pacific time, Biden is leading the electoral vote, and the mail in votes still being counted in PA, NV, NC and GA show Trump’s lead shrinking rapidly. This will be a close run thing, but President Trump’s paths to reelection are narrowing rapidly. So, maybe not the blowout victory liberals were hoping for, but not yet a disappointment either.
Perhaps we should consider a little charity toward our Conservative brothers and sisters? It’s liable to be a rough few days for them.
Sidney, I am sure our Democrat friends will be happy to be rid of Trump, if that is what in fact happens in the coming days and weeks. But the primary point of my OP remains the same: the predictions coming from the pollsters and the primary media sources (including Fox News, which was actually one of the worst offenders) were so far off as to be a huge embarrassment. In a more fair world there would be massive firings of the pollsters and media figures involved for pure incompetence, but this will not happen. The same people will be around two years from now putting out misleading polls and other information during the 2022 midterms. That creates a very dangerous situation, regardless of who occupies the White House in Jan. 2021.
Indeed. The closeness of this election alone puts the lie to the near-entirety of the mainline spin on Biden’s impending blowout win. You could see the walkbacks trying to happen over this last weekend, but it was too little too late. Everybody in that bubble was wedded to the idea that Biden was going to cruise to victory because Trump was so unpopular. And yet, even after four years of calling Trump the worse-than-Hitler avatar of the destruction of democracy, here we are with Biden probably going to craaaawl over the finish line with what might be the most razor-thin margin of victory in electoral history. The narrative failed, and the hard leftists know it and are thanking their lucky stars it didn’t fail worse. And I don’t think the conservatives are going to have a hard time with the results, so long as the government stays ideologically divided.
Crunching some election numbers, going back to 1980. Here is a ranking of who was more “popular” when they ran for reelection, regardless of election outcome, based on number of popular votes gained or lost from the previous contest (these are approximations):
1. GW Bush +12 million
2. Reagan +11 million
3. Trump +8 million
4. Clinton +3 million
5. Obama -3 million
6 HW Bush -9 million
Here is the breakdown by percentages:
By percentages, Reagan wins, which makes more sense:
1. Reagan +19.3%
2. GW Bush +18.6%
3. Trump +11.1%
4. Clinton +5.2%
5. Obama -5.1%
6 HW Bush -20.0%
I did not take into account third party candidates, US population changes, etc. But seems that on average the Republican party does better than the Democrat when they are the incumbent President.
Anyway, I thought it was interesting.
It’s interesting to re-read of the unwarranted confidence that led to the inaccurate headline Dewey Defeats Truman.
It’s also interesting to look at the fun colored-vector maps of the vote changes from 2012 to 2016 (sea of red vectors “blowing” due right) and the vote changes from 2016 to 2020 (less-coherent rainbow of vectors of all colors mostly blowing north). In this map, a changed preference for voters is reflected in the vectors being red/right or blue/left, while increased turnout is reflected in vectors of any color (purple/unchanged, red, or blue) pointing north.
As reflected in the discourse regarding masks, people on all sides of issues are willing to take action to make their opinion/preference heard.
Election 2020 was a massive tug of war with all attempting to help pull the rope towards their side of the field. It is unclear whether pollsters underestimated the conservatives or overestimated the liberals. Or it could be that the polls persuaded liberals they needn’t try hard (since the vote seemed in the bag) while simultaneously firing up conservatives who were well-aware that concerted turn-out could potentially overcome the supposed preference for Biden.
But at least we haven’t apparently had any embarrassing “Dewey Defeats Truman” moments or a 2000-style early call that was subsequently forced to be withdrawn. Though I imagine there are those who do think court challenges and recounts can reverse the result in key states. Alas, such hopes depend on consistent errors across multiple states.
But, hey, there are many who want to call Joseph Smith a dangerous predator and fraud now that it’s been over 175 years since the fellow died. As someone who has examined the extant data in exhaustive detail, the data simply don’t support such “hopeful” beliefs. But I’ve resigned myself to the fact that some people believe in defiance of fact, cherry-picking the information they wish to hear.
Geoff, I’m curious why you were so confident that Trump would win. Would love to hear what informed your opinion on this. Its looking like Biden will have a decisive win on his hands when all the ballots are finally counted. Statistically bigger than Trump’s win in 2016.
Its clear that polls were wrong in a lot of ways. I never really bought the strange projection that Graham was going to be in trouble in SC or that Dems would take TX, for example. And its not outrageous to explain that as a general liberal media bias. But I also think its pretty obvious that pollster being wrong will continue to be bad for business. They know this. I already knew countless liberals who gave no weight to polls b/c of 2016 and 2020 is not helping that skepticism. So I think pollsters are working hard to get it right. Its not a conscious tilting of the scales. But clearly they are still missing something that they will have to figure out if they are going to stay in business.
Christian J, the polling showing a Trump win in the states I mentioned was significantly more believable than most of the polling from the NY Times (see the OP) and other outfits. Please read this story:
https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/12/yes-the-2020-polling-was-terrible-and-theres-no-excuse/
Key excerpts: With few votes left to register, we have a good handle on the final results: approximately 50.6 percent for Joe Biden to 47.7 percent for President Trump, at the time of this writing. Investor’s Business Daily got closest with a 4-point Biden advantage, but the overall RealClearPolitics average for October was a 9-point Biden lead. Special mention goes to CNN, which judged Biden to have a 12-point advantage, and Quinnipiac, which predicted an 11-point edge.
Even worse were the state polls. Quinnipiac missed Ohio by 12 points, Florida by more than 8 points, and Georgia by 7 points. Morning Consult whiffed Pennsylvania by 8 points and Florida by more than 9 points. The New York Times missed Wisconsin by 10 points.
In the Senate races, Emerson was off a whopping 15 points in Maine. Quinnipiac had Lindsey Graham in a tie race in South Carolina (he won by 10 points), Theresa Greenfield beating Joni Ernst in Iowa by 2 points (Ernst won by 7 points), and Sara Gideon ahead of Susan Collins by 12 points in September, a mammoth 21-point miss. Even races where pollsters called the winner, they flopped badly on margin. CNN had Gary Peters beating John James in Michigan by 12 points, with the final margin being less than 2 points.
More than a ‘Margin of Error’
Some polling outfits claim the misses are just “margin of error,” but this is a misuse of the term. The problems for the public polls are more systemic than simply picking out the worst misses.
I have written about margin of error before, but let me describe it in the current context, not perfect statistical theory. Margin of error is kind of a measure of bad luck. Think of flipping a coin. If you flip a coin 10 times and get seven heads, that’s a lot — but not too crazy because it’s a small sample. Now, flip that coin 1,000 times, and the split will not be 70-30; it will be much closer to 50-50. If you repeated every day for a month, some days you would have more tails than heads and vice versa. It is very unlikely you will ever get exactly 50-50.
What if you repeat the experiment, and heads is always in the lead? Sometimes it’s only by a little, sometimes by a lot. If that is the case, then the “error” is all in one direction, which is bias. You have a bad coin on your hands.
Good polling would have yielded margins of victory that see-sawed around the true result, with some a little above and some a little below. Of the last 20 national polls, however, only one overestimated in Trump’s favor. Looking at the state polls, only in Georgia and Arizona did the polls behave nearly as they should: Of the last 20 polls, 10 overestimated Biden in Georgia and 14 in Arizona, six overestimated Trump in Georgia and five in Arizona, and four and one were on the nose in those states, respectively.
Elsewhere, the results were disastrous. Not a single poll overestimated Trump in Ohio or Iowa. In fact, 13 polls had Biden winning Ohio, although he lost by 8 points. In Wisconsin and Florida, only one poll in each slightly overestimated Trump (Susquehanna by 1 point in both states), and only Trafalgar got the exact margin in each.
These two polling outfits, generally considered Republican-friendly, performed well across all battleground states, along with Rasmussen, which is also largely derided as a GOP partisan. These three did err a bit toward Trump at times but mostly by 1 or 2 points, in contrast to the public polls, which were often far off the mark. ABC/Washington Post had Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, when the real margin turned out to be 1 point.