One of the very strange phenomena of the last few years is that people are increasingly living in alternate realities. Because of social media algorithms and the new business models of the mainstream media, people increasingly only receive the information they want to receive. As recently as a decade or so ago, people generally saw a lot of the same information — today people exist in at least two information silos, and one group of people (the left and the Democrats) do not usually see any of the same information as people in the other silo (the right and the Republicans).
For the last few months, people on the left have been told that Joe Biden will easily win today’s election. Biden is ahead in all of the battleground states and may even win Texas! Here is a sample of what many left-wing people seem to believe from today’s New York Times:
538.com, the Nate Silver-run election forecasting site, has Biden easily winning. Here is the thing: many of the polls results are CLEARLY FALSE and no professional political scientist worth his or her salt actually believes them. There is NO WAY, absolutely none, that Biden beats Trump by 11 points in Wisconsin (a state that Trump won in 2016). Biden might win by a point or two or even three, but there is simply no rational formula having Biden winning by 11 points. Similarly, there is no way Biden wins Michigan by eight points (another state that Trump won in 2016). Again, he might win by a point or two or even three, but not eight points. And the people who put together this poll know this is impossible, but yet they published the results.
The problem is that the media is clearly printing information that they know is false. Why would they do this? Because the business model of the media has changed. Much of the media world today is driven by people clicking on things on the internet. About 40 percent of the U.S. population is made up of people who despise Trump, and many of these people are highly educated and have higher than average earning potential. These people want to hear that Trump is going to be destroyed on election night and hopefully soon sent to jail. So the media, instead of printing what is actually happening, prints information that their readers want to see. The future of these media outlets depends on keeping these readers happy, so the media invents news that fits the expected narrative.
Of course we can see that this is extremely dangerous. Printing information that is obviously false leads to false expectations, and when the results do not fit the narrative, we get anger and claims of fraud and this year likely a lot of violence. This is why shop owners in city centers are boarding up their businesses this week — they can read the tea leaves and they know the left will be upset when things don’t go their way.
So, have charity for your left-wing friends this week and in the weeks ahead. They are mostly good people, and they have been manipulated by the media in a most cynical fashion. The information they are receiving has been twisted and falsified, and the people receiving that information do not know what they don’t know.
What will really happen today? I have been predicting a Trump win for many months now, just as I did in 2016. Trump will win the following states: IA, FL, NC, GA, TX, MI, AZ. I think those state result will be called by tomorrow, Nov. 4, and Trump will have enough electoral college votes to win. PA will also go to Trump, but the results will not be final for a few days. MN and WI are too close to call, but I am leaning Trump winning WI and maybe MN. Trump also possibly wins NV and NH and one vote from Maine. Trump will win the electoral college and come closer in the popular vote. The Republicans will keep 51 to 53 seats in the Senate and pick up a few seats in the House. I have friends who are convinced the Republicans will take back the House, but I am skeptical.
But here is the thing: no matter what happens, I have seen the other side’s predictions, and if things don’t go my way I will know that my models were wrong. I will not riot or claim the Russians stole the election. Life will go on. And to any left-wingers or other Trump haters reading this: life will go on if Trump wins as well. Stay joyful people.