Election predictions

Now’s your time to put your reputation on the line and put in writing your predictions for the 2012 election. Here are mine:

–Romney will win the electoral college with at least 273 votes (270 needed to win). I say he will get 51 percent of the popular vote. I see several scenarios where Romney will get to 295 or more, but I will stay conservative and say he will get at least 273.
–Democrats will keep the Senate, although it will be close and the Republicans may pick up a seat or two (they currently have 47).
–Republicans will either keep their existing majority or pick up a handful of House seats. Mia Love will win in Utah, and there will be many more surprise wins for Republicans (and a few for Dems) in the House.

Make your predictions below.

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About Geoff B.

Geoff B graduated from Stanford University (class of 1985) and worked in journalism for several years until about 1992, when he took up his second career in telecommunications sales. He has held many callings in the Church, but his favorite calling is father and husband. Geoff is active in martial arts and loves hiking and skiing. Geoff has five children and lives in Colorado.

11 thoughts on “Election predictions

  1. My predictions haven’t changed from months ago: both Obama and Mia Love will win. I think the Obama win will be close but not 2000 close–I’d guess the difference of two swing states like Ohio, Colorado, or Florida.

  2. I will go out on the other limb. In the past few days I have seen articles on the major news sites that liken Obama losing to the post reconstructionist backlash in the South. The implication is that if we as a country don’t reelect him then we really are just racists. I think that nagging little pang will tilt the election and Pres. Obama will win by the smallest possible margins. Down ticket, I agree with you.

  3. A close Romney win is what I think (and hope). The major political issue that is getting scant coverage is the likely inability of Pres. Obama (should he be re-elected) to work with a Republican Congress. Obama campaigns as if he has unfinished business, but he will get almost nothing he wants passed through the House. Gridlock for 4 more years is not a great way to leave a legacy.

  4. Obama will win with at least 290 and probably more than 303. He will also squeal out a win by a little over 1% on the popular vote. See: http://election.princeton.edu/ for a median statistics/bootstrapping analysis and explanation as to why.

  5. 269 to 269. Electoral tie. Popular vote win will be a margin <100,000 votes to either candidate. US House attempts to vote Romney in while all hell breaks loose.

  6. Multiple recounts in at least 2 states. Issue will go to SCOTUS, who will break for Obama in a “per curiam” decision with a Roberts dissent joined by Scalia, Thomas and Alito. And, this will happen just before Christmas after a month and a half of rioting.

  7. Romney wins 50.4% of the popular vote, Obama gets more than 300 of the electoral votes, there are an unprecedented number of lawsuits, Florida plays an eerily similar role to Bush v. Gore, none of the legal challenges are heard by the U.S. Supreme Court, and Obama is inaugurated for a second term in January.

  8. Geoff B., so glad to see that you Coloradans did the right thing and legalized marijuana. This will be a great point of pride for years to come.

  9. Bill, agreed. I am happy to say I voted for amendment 64. I think it may actually *decrease* the number of people who smoke pot, and at the very least it will bring in new revenue for the state and decrease the amount of money spent by law enforcement on going after people who are basically doing the same thing as drinking alcohol. To be clear: I have friends who are 50 years old who are already showing signs of dementia because of so much pot-smoking. Pot is clearly bad for you. But so is alcohol, and government cannot stop people from drinking, so it should not try to stop them from smoking pot.

    As a libertarian-leaning person, there is a lot to cheer in these results. This was an election that showed that society is becoming more liberal on social issues, and overall I think that is a good thing (although as a Church member I do not support gay marriage). In addition, the House is still Republican, and divided government is a good thing for controlling spending.

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